Thursday, April 30, 2009

True Economic Growth Starts with the Right Education and Incentives

We are finally getting rid of a culture where our best and brightest were going into activities that were directed at creating fake-non-long-term economic growth….
Is financial engineering fake economic growth? Not to the extent that it finances real economic growth (i.e. expand the possibilities of real growth to occur)… however, most of the financial engineering we experienced during the last number of years wasn’t really directed to productive economic growth, but, rather incented to provide quick intermediation fees (and augment the % of profits that the financial industry had in our economy) regardless of the economic outcome… this is/was deplorable and I hope it stays in the mind of various generations to come (although I also believe that financial memory is rather short)… None of this would have happened if we had not allowed “Economic Intermediation” (be it in the financial industry, in the real estate industry, any industry to be paid on a fee-based, no-skin in the game, I’ll be gone and I-would-have –spent-all-the-money-by-the-time-you-go-bust-and-realize”)…
If an intermediary is wise enough to recommend the purchase of a particular asset, they should be paid the majority of their work based on the results of that recommendation (why is this so crazy!!)…
Here is a recommendation: Create a payment structure where they make a killing when they recommend something that works out, but, they don't earn anything when they recommend something that flops (perhaps something to cover basic costs).
Now, don't lock them for too long of a time for this payment structure to work (i.e. if the recommendation goes bust after a “rational” period of time, they should have already cashed out under the assumption that there were other forces beyond the recommendation itself that brought the asset down).
Last point - we should always look at performace / profits / growth over a 10 years period - financial industry profits never were what they were back then - if we subtract all the losses today, we see that just like everything - there is always reversion to the mean.

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